The factors that propelled Brexit could solidify a victory for Trump

Sections of the Republican Party may loathe Trump, but just as ‘Brexit means Brexit’ so the primaries have delivered their verdict

This is a crazy political year but Donald Trump offends so many people in the US (Reuters)

It all takes so long in the US. In Britain, an earth-shattering referendum, a Prime Minister’s resignation and a first leadership ballot to replace him, all within 10 days – not to mention the mini-coup of the leaked email and Boris Johnson’s stunning demise, in the space of a few hours. Even now, when grassroots Tory party members have the final word, the whole process will take no more than a few weeks.

Here meanwhile, the election process grinds on. An American presidential campaign these days lasts 18 months, a British general election just one. The primaries are over, but not until late on the night of 8 November will we learn who will succeed Barack Obama (and not even then if there’s a repeat of Florida 2000). Even the fictional equivalents march to different rhythms. Everyone turns to House of Cards for parallels with the Conservative skullduggery. Except that the original BBC version plus sequels occupied just 12 episodes. With Frank and Claire Underwood, it’s 52 and counting.

But do not despair. The segment of the presidential marathon most likely to generate British-style backroom mayhem is upon us. I refer to the party conventions, and in particular to the planned coronation of Donald Trump when Republicans gather in Cleveland, in a fortnight’s time.

For decades conventions have been the most over-covered, under-newsy events in US politics. The last time there was a genuine frisson of excitement was in 1980, when Edward Kennedy tried to change the rules to unseat incumbent president Jimmy Carter, who had soundly beaten him in the primaries. As expected, the attempt failed – though Kennedy’s rousing speech (“The cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die”) is the lasting memory of the occasion.

But not since 1976, when neither Gerald Ford nor challenger Ronald Reagan entered the Republican convention with a majority of pledged delegates, has an outcome been seriously in doubt. Even then Ford won on the first ballot. There hasn’t been a multi-ballot convention in more than 60 years. For the last three decades, they’ve been four-day party political info-mercials for those with the stamina to follow them.

But it wasn’t always so. Today the primaries are what matter – conventions are fluff. But once upon a time the roles were reversed. Primaries were all but unknown, conventions did the business. If there was intrigue, they were where intrigue happened, where party grandees plotted and schemed, just like the Tories do now, to decide their leader and come up with a vice-president.

Those were the days of dark horses, stalking horses and smoke-filled rooms. Back in 1924 Democrats took 16 days and a record 103 ballots to find a nominee. Usually such deadlocks guarantee ultimate defeat. The exception was Woodrow Wilson, who needed 43 ballots to secure a majority of delegates at the 1912 Democratic convention in Baltimore but won the general election. And historians still pore over the dealings whereby JFK came up with Lyndon Johnson, his closest rival for the nomination, as his running mate during the 1960 convention in Los Angeles.

In Cleveland this time, such convulsions are unlikely. Sections of the Republican Party may loathe Trump, but just as “Brexit means Brexit,” so the primaries have delivered their verdict. Trump won overwhelmingly. A ‘NeverTrump’ movement is trying to change the rules, Ted Kennedy-style, to allow delegates to vote as they please, but it would be a miracle if it succeeded. And if it did, civil war would follow – and war might be the operative word, given the undertones of violence at Trump events. As for efforts by conservative purists, fiercest intra-party foes of the property mogul, to find a plausible alternative candidate, they have gone nowhere.

Even so, Cleveland 2016 will be weird. Anything might happen. It could be a Trump spectacular: “we need some showbiz, conventions can be boring,” he has said. The worst scenario is a repeat of Chicago 1968, a witches’ brew of protesters, Trump loyalists, riot police and tear gas, on the streets outside the arena. The second worse is chaos inside the arena, if anti-Trump delegates stage a floor protest live on national TV – not exactly the info-mercial intended for a waiting nation.

And still there’s no word of exactly who will speak, and when. Never has a convention seen so many absentees, including traditional sponsors such as Ford and JP MorganChase. Normally conventions showcase a party’s golden oldies, past presidents and the like. Not this one. The Bushes are Republican royalty, but neither George 41 or George 43 will be there, nor will Jeb, he of the “low energy” derided by Trump.

Mitt Romney and John McCain, the party’s last two nominees, aren’t attending. Nor are a host of senators, congressmen and governors, many of them in tough re-election races where the mere whiff of Trump is kryptonite. Asked why he wasn’t coming, one absentee senator replied, “I’ve got to mow the lawn.”

Out of this a winning campaign must be fashioned. This is a crazy political year; the factors propelling Trump resemble those that propelled Brexit to victory. But, pace Boris, the British referendum shock wasn’t fundamentally about individuals. US presidential elections are. Trump offends so many. For him, advisers are just window-dressing, useful for imparting a little gravitas, but ignored when their advice doesn’t suit a bully’s whim of the moment. Which raises the question, who will consent to be that ultimate piece of window-dressing, Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee?

The favourite is probably Chris Christie, the belligerent New Jersey governor turned Jeeves to Trump’s Wooster, and who is well regarded by the party’s establishment, vital for the organisation of a national campaign. Also in the running is Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, matched for bombast only by Trump but wise in the ways of Washington. Some say Trump will announce his choice this week. But there’s no predicting Trump. And no predicting what might happen in Cleveland.