Ali Ansari: Iran is facing either reform or revolution

From a speech to The Royal Institute of International Affairs by Durham University's expert in Iranian politics

The Iranian public is disgruntled and disillusioned. Despite significant changes in the political culture of Iran since [Mohammad] Khatami's election in 1997, fundamental problems with the structure of the state have yet to be addressed, and many Iranians, especially the young, are restless with the perceived procrastination of reformers, and the consequent glacial pace of change.

The conceit of Iran's conservative elite is breathtaking, disturbing even their own allies with actions which seem to belie any sense of social justice and Islamic ethics. Heavy-handed repression, rather than destroying a fledgling civil society and restoring public apathy, has resulted in a strengthening of opposing wills.

Indeed, conservative excess appears to have generated a determined response which, this time, will be less easy to quell. Youthful idealism has given way to an uncompromising radicalism among the student body, who far from being a spent force, are reorganising to demand nothing less than a referendum on the Constitution.

Many Iranians, anxious not to relive the traumas of the early days of the revolution, are erring on the side of caution, calculating the consequences of their actions. But it would be a mistake to interpret caution as apathy, as many hardliners are wont to do. Anger is growing, and as demonstrations reveal, even the most systematic repression has failed to dampen the determination to seek change. As one student argued, it's either reform or revolution, one way or another we will achieve our aims.