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What the bookies say about the state of the Conservative leadership race; plus how Jeremy Corbyn could save UKIP

I wrote on Sunday about the Conservative leadership election, and said that I didn't see how George Osborne was going to stop Boris Johnson.

Naturally, the state of the competition between the two is more complicated. One piece of information for which I didn't have space is the betting market for the next Conservative leader. This morning, it gave Osborne a 31 per cent chance, with Johnson on 22 per cent. That seems to mark Johnson's chances down heavily, although it is interesting that there has been a two-point swing in his favour since Saturday. But it also suggests a 47 per cent chance that David Cameron's successor will be Someone Else.

Maybe that is right, because despite the fake certainty of my headline a lot could happen between now and the leadership election, which may not be for three and a half years yet. But I still cannot see who would make it to the final two apart from Osborne and Johnson. It is not as if Tory MPs are likely to put someone they don't really want on the ballot paper to "widen the debate". The other names that attracted more than 2 per cent support from party members in the Conservative Home poll in November were Sajid Javid (17%), Theresa May (16%), Liam Fox (12%) and Michael Gove (8%), and I don't think it's any of them. Fox and Gove weren't even offered as possibles in the YouGov poll of party members in October.

So let me add some more weights to the scales of an Osborne-Johnson contest. The economy could be a problem for the Chancellor. If growth stutters, he will get the blame while Johnson floats free. It may be that the subtext of the Cameron-Osborne theme of economic security and national security is partly aimed at Boris. “People want a prime minister who makes them feel safe,” as an astute Labour MP said to me.

Then there is the effect on the Tories of the state of the Labour Party, currently not presenting a formidable threat at the 2020 election. That could work both ways. In Osborne's favour, party members won't feel that they have to choose the candidate with proven broad appeal to Labour voters. On the other hand, if Johnson is seen as the riskier candidate, Labour's abdication means that Tories may feel they can take a risk.

Overall, I think Johnson has a better chance than the bookies give him.

• Janan Ganesh in the Financial Times yesterday disagreed with "a commentator who has seen political sensations flicker brightly and fizzle out" (I think he was calling me old) who asserted recently that UKIP is finished. His is an outstanding column, making the point that Labour has moved away from the working class:

New Labour was always misread as a middle-class takeover of a working-class movement. It was something close to the opposite. By hardening its line on crime and defence, by cloaking it unsqueamishly in the British flag, by taking school standards and welfare abuse seriously, Tony Blair returned a party captured by the whims of the Brahmin left to actual working people. ...

Ukip has a future as long as Labour is run by people who embrace everything about the working classes apart from what they say, do and think.

• And finally, thanks to Nick Harvey ‏for this:

Son: Where do you find giant snails?

Me: Hang on. [Googles.] Originally from Kenya, the Achatina Fulica now...

Son [sadly]: Giants' fingers.