Sharon poised for victory in battle against Netanyahu

If the polls are right, Ariel Sharon will trounce Binyamin Netanyahu in today's contest for the leadership of Israel's Likud Party and go on to win a second term as Prime Minister in January's elections.

A poll for the Israeli Ha'aretz newspaper yesterday gave Mr Sharon a 24-point lead over Mr Netanyahu going into the leadership election. The smallest predicted victory margin for Mr Sharon was 20 points, in a poll for the daily Yedioth Ahronoth.

With the polls predicting a similar victory for the Likud Party in January's national elections, Mr Sharon, whom many blamed for touching off the Palestinian intifada with his visit to the Temple Mount, or Haram al-Sharif, two years ago, looks likely to continue to lead Israel through it.

Mr Netanyahu, the hardline former prime minister, based his comeback around criticising Mr Sharon for not being tough enough on the Palestinians. His situation now looks desperate. To lose to Mr Sharon is one thing, but if he loses by a wide margin, his credibility within Likud will be damaged.

Amram Mitzna, the new leader of the Labour Party, has pledged to resume peace talks with Yasser Arafat if he wins in January. But with Likud so far ahead in the polls, the future does not look bright for the peace process.

While Mr Netanyahu has pledged he would never agree to the creation of a Palestinian state – the centrepiece of the White House's proposals to get the peace process restarted – Mr Sharoninsists he will agree to one.

In an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth, Mr Sharon made it clear that any Palestinian state he envisages is strictly limited. He described it as "a state that is completely demilitarised, unarmed", and added: "It will have only police forces, with Israel controlling its external borders and its air space."

But when asked about the territorial extent of a Palestinian state, Mr Sharon was characteristically vague.

"Every place hurts," he said. "Take the Bible and read about all of those places."

Mr Netanyahu appears to have lost ground because his refusal to agree to a Palestinian state and his pledge to expel Mr Arafat flew in the face of American policy.

While those policies may have support in Likud, alienating US support for Israel does not. There was concern when Mr Netanyahu announced that the latest US "road map" for peace was on hold as soon as he became Foreign Minister a few weeks ago.

Mr Sharon's gamble in bringing Mr Netanyahu into the government after a coalition with the Labour Party collapsed appeared to have paid off.

Mr Netanyahu has also been criticised for basing much of his leadership campaign around the economy. Israel's economy is in very bad shape after two years of the intifada, and Mr Sharon's expensive military response. But it seems few in Israel are ready to put the economy ahead of security as long as people are dying in suicide bombings.

* Mr Arafat's deputy, who has been spoken of as a possible rival for the Palestinian leadership, was reported yesterday as saying the armed uprising against Israel was a mistake and should be stopped.

Mahmoud Abbas, known as Abu Mazen, apparently made the remarks in a meeting last month. "What happened in these two years, as we see it now, is a complete destruction of everything we built," Abu Mazen was reported to have said. "We have to control the situation."