Narrow gap between 'yes' and 'no' may convince Blair euro time is right

Euro debate

Britain makes 'significant' shift towards the euro

Narrow gap may convince Blair time is right

Leading article: The euro is a success, and Mr Blair should have the courage to lead us into it

As the single currency completed its first 100 days yesterday, there was a foretaste of the heated battle between supporters and opponents of British membership that will rage whenever the referendum campaign comes.

Thirty Labour MPs launched a group, "Labour Against the Euro", to fight any moves by Tony Blair to call a referendum before the next general election.

The MPs trumpeted a poll by ICM showing that only 22 per cent of Labour supporters back joining the currency in this Parliament and that 20 per cent would be less likely to vote Labour at the next election if the Government campaigned to join. The MPs translated this into a stark warning that Labour could lose 111 seats, resulting in a hung parliament.

As reporters left a Westminster press conference, they were ambushed by a rival group from Britain in Europe, the embryonic "yes" campaign, armed with its own poll showing that 73 per cent of Labour supporters want to see a referendum before the general election and only 10 per cent want one afterwards.

Britain in Europe dismissed the new Eurosceptic group as "the usual suspects against the euro". Bill Rammell, chairman of the Labour Movement for Europe, said: "The Prime Minister should disregard the views of this very small group of Labour MPs and honour the Labour commitment to a referendum when the economic tests are met."

The polls by the rival camps apparently point in different directions but reflect the different – and sometimes rather slanted – questions they ask in the hope of winning further ammunition for their cause.

A survey by NOP for The Independent asked two separate questions. When people were asked how they would vote if a referendum were held tomorrow, 45 per cent said "no" and 31 per cent "yes" – a much smaller margin than the 2-1 often claimed by Eurosceptics, but still a sizeable gap.

However a very different picture emerged when people were asked how they would vote if, in the next two or three years, the Government said its economic tests had been passed and recommended entry. While 41 per cent said "no", 37 per cent replied "yes", a much smaller gap and one supporters of the single currency are convinced they could close in a campaign which made the case for membership.

The Independent's findings will encourage Mr Blair to act on his pro-euro instincts and reinforce the growing belief of his advisers that opposition to the euro is "wide but shallow". Blair aides believe a narrow deficit in polls could be turned round in a six-month campaign ahead of a referendum in May next year or the autumn.

"There is a lack of information and public knowledge on the issue; when the time comes, people will be hungry for the facts," one minister said yesterday. "If we can achieve 37 per cent now, we will definitely win a referendum."

Ministers are also confident the public will warm instinctively to the personalities leading the "yes" campaign – Mr Blair, Gordon Brown, most Labour MPs, the Liberal Democrats, pro-euro businessmen and trade union leaders – rather than the "no" camp led by Iain Duncan Smith, Lord Owen and some Eurosceptic businessmen.

But Mr Blair faces one formidable obstacle. Mr Brown is not the Eurosceptic he is often portrayed as, and believes that Britain will join the euro one day. But he may decide it is better to wait until after the next election.

Yesterday's exchange of fire between the two campaigns was in part a surrogate for the Blair and Brown camps.

It was significant that Labour MPs opposing early entry argued the Government should concentrate on public services instead. Exactly the same point was made by Ed Balls, Mr Brown's closest aide and the Treasury's chief economic adviser, to a Fabian Society seminar last year.

Labour sceptics pointed to their poll's finding that people saw the NHS, education, transport and law and order as their top priorities. Only 3 per cent of people identified joining the euro, the lowest score for the 11 issues they were asked about.

Neil Kinnock, a European commissioner and former Labour leader, said: "Labour people who really care about public services should understand that the euro is not a 'distraction' from the task of strengthening them, it is a useful implement in that task." He said Britain would have to stick to "prudent" economic policies whether in or out of the euro.

When crunch time finally comes for the Government, the views of the "yes" and "no" camps will not matter very much. As one Cabinet minister said: "The decision will be taken by two people sitting alone in a room – Tony and Gordon – and no one else will know what is going to happen until they come out."