Three things to watch as results come in from Georgia runoff elections

President bragged at rally about his ‘coattails’ lifting Republican candidates. That will be tested on Tuesday night

Donald Trump warned supporters at a rally on Monday night that Democrats are hellbent on trying to “steal” the White House and two Senate runoff races in Georgia. Though he did not provide any evidence, the Dalton crowd booed loudly.

Some Republican operatives are worried Mr Trump’s talk of elections “rigged” against conservative candidates will hurt the party by driving down turnout among his base.

Mr Trump knows that, but used most of perhaps his final rally as president to rail against his Electoral College loss to President-elect Joe Biden. He bragged about his own “coattails” helping GOP candidates, suggesting that might be enough to bring Republicans Kelly Leoffler and David Perdue back to the Senate.

Here are three things to watch as the Peach State votes. Again.  

North and south

Typically in America it has been, and is, North vs. South. (See: The Civil War.)

But if Republicans are going to maintain their Senate majority, they’ll need a big turnout from conservative voters in the northern and southern parts of the Peach State.

Both areas are largely rural and deep red politically.

Mr Trump won just about every county in both regions in both his 2016 presidential win and his 2020 loss.

That was the play behind his Monday night rally in Dalton, which is not that far from neighboring Tennessee.

That is the GOP’s path, by offsetting another expected big turnout in urban areas like Atlanta and Macon.

Trump’s ‘coattails’

The president appears as hungry for any shred of credit he can obtain. And he tried to snatch all the credit House Minority Leader Kevin McCarty is getting for shrinking Democrats’ House majority in November – against almost all predictions.

“Democrats were projected to gain 15 House seats, and instead, and Kevin McCarthy gives us the credit, good man, very good man, my coattails,” Mr Trump told supporters in Dalton.

Just after Election Day in November, Speaker Nancy Pelosi actually agreed, saying some of her then-incumbents lost in conservative districts they won in 2018 because Mr Trump was on the ballot.

Mr Trump wanted to preemptively credit any Republican win in Georgia on his “coattails.”

“We swept our Republican House candidates to victory and we have a couple of great ones with us tonight, and the Democrats lost 14 seats,” he said. “It was supposed to be the other way around – and when that happens, no president loses unless they play games. You don't lose. They play games. The fact is, we won the presidential election, we won it big and we're going to win tomorrow.”

Vintage Trump: Two thought streams weaved into what was about a 25-second part of his remarks.

Sowing doubts

Even before Election Day dawned, the president was accusing Democrats of trying to “steal” both runoff races.

“The Democrats are trying to steal the White House. You cannot let them, you just can't, let them steal the US Senate,” he warned the rally crowd in Dalton. “You can't let it happen, you can't let it happen.

He kept it up as voters were casting ballots the next day.

“Reports are coming out of the 12th Congressional District of Georgia that Dominion Machines are not working in certain Republican Strongholds for over an hour. Ballots are being left in lock boxes, hopefully they count them,” the president tweeted.

But will Mr Trump’s remarks about a “steal” attempt and faulty voting machines help or hurt Republican turnout up north and down south?