Labour strives to tighten its hold on Celtic connection

Labour will be fighting to tighten its grip on power in Scotland and Wales today while the Conservatives, in contrast, will hope to avoid disaster.

To regard the outcome of today's devolved elections in Scotland and Wales as purely a judgement on Tony Blair's decision to go to war against Iraq or on the merits of Iain Duncan Smith's leadership of the Conservative Party would be a mistake. For devolved elections are different.

First there is the electoral system. Not only is the familiar first-past-the-post system used to elect Scotland's 73 individual constituency members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) and Wales' 40 constituency Assembly members (AMs), but voters also have a second ballot. This is cast for party lists from which an additional 56 MSPs and 20AMs are elected so that the total number of seats won by each party is as proportional as possible.

Second, there are the voters. People who would never vote nationalist in a Westminster poll are, seemingly, happy to do so in a devolved election – largely at Labour's expense. In Scotland this "devolution gap" is worth about a 6 per cent swing to the nationalists from Labour, while in Wales it is at least 9 per cent. Voters give a different answer when asked who they want to run Scotland or Wales than when asked who they want to run Britain.

So in spite of the fact that Labour provides 56 of Westminster's 72 Scottish MPs and 34 of the 40 Welsh MPs, it fails to dominate either devolved institution, having been unable to win an overall majority four years ago. That shortcoming caused it to have to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in both Scotland and Wales.

Similarly, Labour has little chance of winning a majority in Scotland this time either. The Scottish Parliament has 129 members and Labour would need to win 65 constituencies to secure an overall majority. Even if it won all 56 of the constituencies it won at the last UK general election, it would still be nine constituencies short. To obtain a majority, Labour would need to be able to win more than 45 per cent of the second "party list" vote but, on average, the final polls give the party only 29 per cent.

In Wales, though, the story ought to be different. Labour could win a comfortable majority in the 60-member Assembly simply by winning the 34 "first past the post" constituencies it won two years ago. Yet whether it will remains to be seen.

Labour must have hoped that the "devolution gap" would have narrowed under Rhodri Morgan's leadership. Instead of being embroiled – as it was four years ago – in the scandal surrounding the resignation of Ron Davies as Welsh Secretary and the disputed election of Alun Michael as Davies' successor as Welsh leader, this time the party is led by someone who has demonstrated a willingness to pursue policies that are distinctively different from London. Yet the polls suggest that in practice the "devolution gap" is as big as ever.

Even so, Labour could still win an overall majority. Its 39 per cent first-vote standing in a final NOP poll could be enough if the party wins votes in the right places. Plaid Cymru face a severe challenge in defending its astonishing wins in Rhondda and Islwyn four years ago, while just a little better luck this time in one or two other marginal constituencies could see Labour home and dry. Labour could come to regret falling out with John Marek in Wrexham – he looks likely to retain this former Labour seat as an Independent.

If devolution has clipped Labour's wings, it has done little to restore the Conservatives' fortunes. True, the party benefits, ironically, from the more proportional electoral system, but the nationalists' greater voting strength has denied the Conservatives their role as chief opposition party in Wales and further underlined their minority status in Scotland.

This time the party is fighting to avoid coming fourth, certainly a danger in Scotland where the final polls suggest it could lose up to half of its 19 seats and might even struggle to stay ahead of the far-left Scottish Socialists.

One poll by YouGov claims the Conservative vote will hold up in Scotland and the final NOP poll suggested the same might be true in Wales. Even so, retaining the party's current minority status on the Celtic fringe seems unlikely to do much to help ease whatever pressure on Iain Duncan Smith's leadership might be provoked by the local council results in England.

John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University