General Election 2015: Nigel Farage is heading for defeat, according to latest poll

Ukip leader, who has pledged to quit if he fails to win seat, is trailing two-points behind Tory candidate in his fight to be elected as MP for South Thanet

Wednesday 29 April 2015 17:55 BST

Nigel Farage celebrating a poll boost in Ramsgate on Thursday (PA)

Nigel Farage is set to fail in his bid to become an MP, according to the latest constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft.

The Ukip leader trails two-points behind the Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay for the Tory-held South Thanet constituency.

Mr Farage has pledged to quit as Ukip leader if he fails to win the seat.

Lord Ashcroft's polling data shows the Tories have increased their lead in the seat by one point from his last poll in November and with the Labour vote falling, it suggests Labour supporters will vote tactically to keep Mr Farage out.

However Mr Farage is ahead by two points before a weighting for turnout and 'don't know' answers are taken into account.

The data also shows that Ukip has made the most contact with voters in the constituency, suggesting he is the most likely to win over the undecided and apathetic voters over.

It is also worth remembering that Lord Ashcroft does not name candidates when asking the polling questions and a poll last week suggested he was on course to become an MP with a Survation poll giving him a 9 per cent lead.

Mr Farage announced in his memoir The Purple Revolution he would resign as party leader if he did not win a seat in the House of Commons. He said it would “frankly just not credible for [him] to continue to lead the party without a Westminster seat of [him] own.”

Responding to Lord Ashcroft's latest South Thanet polling results, a Ukip spokesman said: "What this poll shows is that before re-weighting back to 2010, Nigel is ahead, even without being named as the candidate, which we know adds several points to the end result.

"It's no surprise that the methodology of this poll also predicts that Nick Clegg would lose his seat, as it doesn't name him as the candidate. Overall, we think the top line has been achieved via slightly suspect methods, but on the raw numbers, without being named, we're winning."

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“This is an election of wild promises and political cross-dressing; so no differentiation, no breakthrough, no majority. The most likely outcome is Ed Miliband in No 10 because only he will be in a position to work with enough parties (that is, the SNP) to form a workable government.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“As each day passes and the Conservatives fail to increase their vote share, the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming PM (albeit still with a minority) grows. That’s due to the continued performance of the SNP in Scotland and former Lib Dem voters propping up Labour in England.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“A better week for Ed Miliband than for David Cameron – personal ratings improving, and the betting markets moved in his favour. The poll numbers have him ahead by a whisker which, combined with the electoral maths, makes him more likely to be able to form some kind of government on the raw numbers right now. However, Cameron will be hoping for a 1992 moment when ultimately voters can’t quite bring themselves to try someone else – and 38 per cent of voters still say they may change their mind.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“The Populus/Hanover Predictor has Ed Miliband ending up as Prime Minister in more than five out of six simulations we run.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Tories most seats, SNP 45 or more, Ukip fewer than five: minority Labour government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Ukip’s vote share is prone to be squeezed, benefiting the Conservatives, while the SNP’s onslaught on Labour continues. Based on three UK/Scotland polls, I am upgrading the Conservatives and the SNP, and downgrading Labour. Both the Lib Dems on 30 seats and Ukip on 5 to 10 remain unchanged.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“Still no change, but Nicola Sturgeon goes from strength to strength in Scotland. For me, who the biggest party is will hinge on the crucial marginals. But what ultimately wins – safety first, for the Tories, or Labour’s ‘get out the vote’ ground war?”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Our poll today shows a one-point Tory lead, statistically a tie. It’s going to be incredibly tight. Labour and the Tories would do well to be negotiating with the smaller parties behind the scenes. In the likely event of a hung parliament, we’ve been testing various combinations of coalition. Labour teaming up with the Lib Dems would be more popular than with the SNP, which in turn would be more popular than a Tory/UKIP scenario.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“Not much going on really, and no reason to change my mind. Tories by a couple of points.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

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