Carnival chief gloomy about prospects for P&O Princess bid approval

The chief executive of Carnival Corporation, the US cruise ship operator fighting a hostile bid battle for P&O Princess, admitted yesterday that the chance of his bid being cleared by American competition authorities "was less than 50 per cent".

Micky Arison, who is seeking to break up a £5bn proposed friendly merger between rival Royal Caribbean and P&O Princess, said: "I feel that today the chances are less than fifty-fifty that either deal will go through."

The nine-month battle for cruise ship supremacy will reach a climax next month when the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the US watchdog, is expected to rule on whether to allow either bid to be approved. Both deals have been cleared in Europe.

While Mr Arison said he initially believed both deals had a "fifty-fifty" chance of being supported by the US regulators, the chances had fallen because Royal Caribbean had changed its view on how the cruise market should be defined.

In criticising Richard Fain, Royal's chief executive, for taking a "contrary position" to Carnival and P&O Princess in dealing with the UK, EU and US regulators, he said: "There is only one spoiler in this deal now and that's obvious from its filings" to the FTC.

Mr Arison, who was speaking at the launch of a new Carnival cruise line ship, pointed to the $30m (£20m) his company had spent on fighting the bid to underline his commitment to acquiring P&O Princess.

"I can't tell you how many man hours have been spent of mine and the management," he said.

With just one month remaining before a decision is expected from the FTC, Mr Arison said that he had received no request for him to offer any concessions, such as divesting one or more brand.

"I am not anticipating a request," he said, reiterating that approval from the US boils down to whether it viewed cruising as a wider vacation market or not. "If they see the market the way Royal Caribbean positions it, they will reject both [deals]. If they see the market how ourselves and P&O Princess position it, they will accept both deals.... If we pass the FTC, I'm convinced we'll end up owning P&O Princess."