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Is Russia really the big winner in the battle for the Middle East?

While the nation may find itself in a happier position than it expected over Syria, it did not plan for the US withdrawal, nor the Kurdish-led SDF’s decision to seek government protection rather than face Turkey alone

Mary Dejevsky
Thursday 17 October 2019 19:54 BST
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Journalist Oleg Blokhin films inside abandoned US base in Manbij Syria as Russian troops enter site

The pictures are evocative. Military vehicles flying the Russian flag enter what had until the day before been a Kurdish stronghold in northern Syria; Russian journalists wander freely around what had been a US military base. According to reporters on the ground, there had even been something akin to an orderly handover from the US to Russian forces though neither side was prepared to admit as much in public.

The Russian advance followed Donald Trump’s declaration on 13 October that he was ordering the withdrawal of all US forces in northern Syria. He had announced something similar last year, then reversed track after lobbying from his top brass. This time the order was for real. Within days, the US military had packed up, destroyed any sensitive installations they could not take, and left. It was as simple as that, but an act fraught with immense implications nonetheless.

In political circles back in Washington there was condemnation from both sides of the congressional aisle, where the withdrawal was taken as a dereliction of the God-given duty for the US to police the world, a shameful betrayal of a loyal ally, and a green light for Turkey to do its worst. There was condemnation, too, from the EU, and private bewilderment at the defence ministries in London and Paris, as both countries had special forces quietly supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (without, in the UK case, any parliamentary or public mandate).

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