SNP manifesto would push independent Scotland into more austerity than the Tories, experts warn

An independent Scotland would have to ‘count its pennies and pounds’ says thinktank

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Nicola Sturgeon’s manifesto would plunge an independent Scotland into deeper austerity than under a Conservative government, an independent thinktank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said taxes would have to rise or cuts be made to balance out the SNP’s election proposals, such as increased NHS spending, an end to the two-child cap on tax credits and an increase in the living wage.

The thinktank said the SNP has not published detailed costings of its plans, with the party focused on “contrasting a near-decade of austerity and years of divisive debate over Brexit in the UK, with a positive-sounding vision of independence”.

But David Phillips, associate director of the IFS, said the SNP’s promise to reduce Scotland’s significant deficit would mean austerity for some parts of the government – and said this was “inconsistent” with the party’s criticism of Tory cuts.

It comes after the IFS, which has been running the rule over all the election manifestos, said neither the Conservatives nor Labour were offering “credible” spending plans ahead of the election.

Writing in The Scotsman, Mr Phillips said attempts to shrink Scotland’s deficit should be “commended, but added: ”Pursuing the types of policies suggested in the SNP manifesto in an independent Scotland would mean either those cuts would have to be even bigger, or other taxes would have to be increased to pay for the proposed net giveaways.

“It is also inconsistent to claim that the [SNP] Growth Commission’s plans wouldn’t be austerity but at the same time contend that the UK government has been pursuing austerity in recent years: UK government spending is set to grow by an average of 0.7 per cent a year between 2015-16 and 2019-20.

“Of course this has been a period which has seen cuts to the budgets of many government departments – showing that some areas can face austerity even when total spending is rising.

“Even the Conservative’s modest proposals for the coming parliament would see spending grow by around 1.8 per cent a year, slightly ahead of forecast economic growth.

“Therefore, in the short-term at least, independence would likely necessitate more not less austerity.”

An independent Scotland would have to “count its pennies and pounds” during the first decade, while dealing with a significant deficit due to higher spending per person than the UK average and lower taxes, Mr Phillips wrote.

“It might therefore be understandable that the SNP manifesto does not draw quite the same attention to the price tag of its proposals as Labour and the Liberal Democrats, in particular, do.”

The think tank also said similarities between the SNP and Labour manifestos were “probably not a coincidence” amid widespread speculation over a potential alliance between Ms Sturgeon and Jeremy Corbyn.

Murdo Fraser, Scottish Conservative finance spokesman, described the analysis as a “humiliation” for the SNP leader.

He said: “Once again she’s out today trying to whip up the usual complaints against UK austerity. Yet the IFS has set out the cold facts – if ever she got her way, Scotland would be facing a decade long depression, with less money for the NHS, less money for nurses and the police, and more cuts to services.”

“The IFS analysis has taken the legs out from the SNP’s case.”

But Kirsty Blackman, the SNP’s economy spokesperson, defended the plans as “an ambitious and wide-ranging plan to end austerity, invest in our NHS and increase household incomes”.

She said: “In the next parliament we could potentially hold the balance of power. While we would never put the Tories into government, we have laid out clearly what our demands would be to any other party expecting our support.

“If Scotland had the powers of any normal country, we wouldn’t need to wait for Westminster to bring in a real living wage or fairer parental leave – we could do it ourselves.”