A seat-by-seat guide to the general election in Northern Ireland

These eighteen constituencies are often overlooked by the rest of the UK, despite their potential for conferring power

Northern Ireland’s 18 seats are often overlooked in UK general elections, but the DUP’s success in 2017 reminded us of the key role a handful of seats from the region can sometimes play in propping up a government.

The 2017 election returned 10 DUP MPs, seven Sinn Fein MPs (who do not take their seats) and one independent, Lady Sylvia Hermon.

Going into this election, Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is equally unpopular among unionists, nationalists and many others besides. While many in Northern Ireland disapprove of the DUP’s involvement with the Conservative government, there are many who are just as critical of Sinn Fein for leaving the Remain voice largely silent at Westminster.

Both parties will likely perform well again in what remains a deeply tribal area - but pro-Remain pacts and tactical voting could see the SDLP and Alliance return to the House of Commons, at the expense of some DUP seats. Here’s what to expect across each of the region’s parliamentary constituencies.

Belfast East

2017: DUP (8,474 majority)

This was the seat of former DUP leader Peter Robinson for 30 years until an historic upset saw Naomi Long of the centrist Alliance party win in 2010. The DUP’s Gavin Robinson subsequently took it back, but Ms Long has returned to contest the seat as leader of her party, an elected MEP, and one of Northern Ireland’s strongest and most-respected pro-Remain voices. Sinn Fein, SDLP and the Greens have stepped aside to aid her campaign but their numbers are small here, so this is still leaning in the DUP’s favour.

Belfast North

2017: DUP (2,081 majority)

Arguably the biggest showdown in Northern Ireland at this election will see DUP grandee Nigel Dodds in a head-to-head with Sinn Fein’s John Finucane - the son of solicitor Pat who was killed by loyalists at their home in 1989. The SDLP have stood aside here for Mr Finucane in an unofficial pro-Remain pact to unseat Mr Dodds. The SDLP vote in 2017 was equal to Mr Dodds’ majority, but it’s unclear whether party voters will be willing to back a Sinn Fein candidate, and on the other side, unionists will rally around the DUP to keep Mr Finucane out. This contest has already turned ugly, with the DUP being asked to distance themselves from banners which have slandered the Finucane family. A Sinn Fein win here would be a major coup for the party, and a heavy defeat for the DUP.

Belfast South

2017: DUP (1,996 majority)

Elections have been historically close here, with the UUP and SDLP both taking it historically. Emma Little-Pengelly took it for the DUP in 2017, but she’s almost certain to lose this time to the SDLP’s Claire Hanna. A Stormont MLA who is arguably her party’s strongest asset, Ms Hanna could probably take this seat of her own accord, but Sinn Fein have stepped aside here and endorsed her, which should push several thousand more votes into her column. She has also earned some backing on the other side of the border from Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. As things look, anything but a Hanna win would be a surprise here.

Belfast West

2017: Sinn Fein (21,652 majority)

This is a safe seat for Sinn Fein, held by Gerry Adams for the best part of 30 years, and will see Paul Maskey returned comfortably.

East Antrim

2017: DUP (15,923 majority)

Senior DUP figure Sammy Wilson is extremely safe in this seat which he has held since 2005.

East Londonderry

2017: DUP (8,842 majority)

Gregory Campbell has held this seat safely since 2001, and that isn’t set to change.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

2017: Sinn Fein (875 majority)

Held for nearly two decades by Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew - who took it with a majority of just 4 in 2010 - this seat was briefly wrestled back by the Ulster Unionist Party between 2015 and 2017. As has previously been the case, the DUP will stand aside here to give the UUP’s Tom Elliott a clean run at the incumbent. Regardless, Gildernew is a very popular politician who reaches out across communities in this major border constituency where farmers are concerned about Brexit. One of the tightest nationalist-versus-unionist seats, this is always one to watch.

Foyle

2017: Sinn Fein (169 majority)

Foyle is going to be a close two-horse race between Sinn Fein incumbent Elisha McCallion and SDLP leader Colum Eastwood. Derry has long been regarded as the spiritual home of the SDLP, with this seat held by John Hume for decades, and the Sinn Fein capture of Foyle in 2017 reflected shifting political fortunes in Northern Ireland’s second city. The choice here is essentially between a pro-Remain nationalist MP who doesn’t take her seat, and a pro-Remain nationalist challenger who would take his seat. This result will be a bellwether for nationalist sentiment, and holding it is a Sinn Fein priority.

Lagan Valley

2017: DUP (19,229 majority)

There will be no change here in the seat of senior DUP figure Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.

Mid Ulster

2017: Sinn Fein (12,890 majority)

A Sinn Fein safe seat since 1997, Francie Molloy can expect to be returned here.

Newry and Armagh

2017: Sinn Fein (12,489 majority)

Mickey Brady will be comfortably returned in this safe seat for Sinn Fein.

North Antrim

2017: DUP (20,643 majority)

They don’t come much safer for the DUP than North Antrim, held since 1970 by Ian Paisley and then passed on to Ian Paisley Jr. Even a recall petition following a parliamentary suspension for misconduct in 2018 failed to see the incumbent removed by his constituents, implying he won’t have any worries this December.

North Down

2017: Independent (1,208 majority)

This has been the seat of Northern Ireland’s only independent MP, the pro-Remain unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon. The announcement that she would not run again this time around was met with tributes from across the political spectrum (even Sinn Fein were willing to endorse her for this poll). In her absence, it’s now likely that this seat will go to the DUP’s Alex Easton, although an eye should also be kept on the UUP, the party Lady Hermon broke away from in 2010.

South Antrim

2017: DUP (3,208 majority)

This seat has often switched hands between the DUP and the UUP over the decades, with a few thousand votes often separating the two. It’s likely Paul Girvan will be returned here, but a surprise win by the UUP’s Danny Kinahan shouldn’t be totally ruled out.

South Down

2017: Sinn Fein (2,466 majority)

Sinn Fein took this seat from their nationalist SDLP rivals in 2017, and although it’s one of their smaller majorities, there isn’t much concern that Chris Hazzard will lose this seat.

Strangford

2017: DUP (18,343 majority)

Jim Shannon will be returned in this very safe seat for the DUP.

Upper Bann

2017: DUP (7,992 majority)

A DUP seat since 2005, the current MP David Simpson is standing down. The party’s new candidate Carla Lockhart - who has become something of a rising star despite an avalanche of personal online abuse - will likely retain the seat for the party.

West Tyrone

2017: Sinn Fein (7,956 majority)

Órfhlaith Begley retained this seat for Sinn Fein in a 2018 by-election, and will likely be returned again.