Chance of Brexit happening on 31 October now just 10%, say bank analysts

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The chance of Brexit happening as planned on 31 October is now just 10 per cent according to analysts at Swiss bank Julius Baer.

Meanwhile, the UK chancellor, Sajid Javid, attempted to sweeten the Brexit pill by promising to re-introduce duty-free cigarettes and alcohol if the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 31 October.

The Treasury said excise duty would no longer be charged on alcohol and cigarettes bought when leaving Britain.

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Key Points

• Analysts cut chances of Halloween no-deal Brexit to 10%
• Corbyn pledges “biggest extension of workers’ rights” in history
• Treasury pledges to bring back duty-free booze and cigarettes after no-deal Brexit

[10 September 2019 09:16 · ben.chapman]

Welcome to The Independent's live coverage of business and economics events around the world.

Markets have opened lower in Europe while the pound has fallen around a fifth of a cent against both the dollar and the euro.

Official UK jobs figures are due shortly. Low unemployment has been one of the few bright spots for the economy in recent months while wages have begun to rise after years of falls and stagnation.

[10 September 2019 09:20 · ben.chapman]

Will the US avoid recesssion?

Yes, according to analysts at UBS - but it's certainly not all good news for Donald Trump.

"Although growth will be sluggish, our base case is still that the US economy avoids recession," says Mark Haefele, chief investment officer, UBS Global Wealth Management.

"US data last week supported our view that while the manufacturing sector is contracting, the services sector is holding up, along with job creation and consumer spending.

"Barring a further escalation in the trade conflict, we don’t see a further sharp move lower in 10-year US Treasuries, which we expect to end the year around 1.5%, versus 1.6% at present."

[10 September 2019 09:36 · ben.chapman]

The wheels are falling off at WeWork

The biggest investor in co-working company WeWork has reportedly told the company to shelve its much-anticipated IPO in the latest sign that investors have lost appetite for firms promising fast growth but with little sign of any profits.

SoftBank is urging the loss-making startup's board to put off a share sale after investors gave it a cool reception, the Financial Times reports.

WeWork claims to have revolutionised the market for office space but an army of critics warn that it is simply an overhyped, overpriced property company.

Just months ago, Goldman Sachs was attempting to market WeWork as a $65bn company. Now it is reportedly attempting to drum up interest at around a quarter of that price tag - between $15bn and $20bn.

WeWork lost $690m in the first six months of the year, taking its losses in the past

[10 September 2019 09:48 · ben.chapman]

JD Sports defies high street gloom with 10% sales jump

Like-for-like UK sales at JD Sports jumped 10 per cent in the first half of the year - an outstanding result compared to many retailers who have been struggling.

The sportswear retailer launched an attack on landlords over the rent reductions given to other high street firms which have experienced financial difficulty.

The company said:

"We are very aware of the financial benefit that other retailers appear to get when they downsize their estates and, whilst we have no plans to fundamentally alter the size of the JD store network in the UK at this time, we continue to seek fairness and flexibility in the terms of our leases."

JD told the BBC its success was down to a "top tier" experience for customers in its stors as well as the "best and edgiest" offers.

[10 September 2019 09:55 · ben.chapman]

UK wage growth hits highest since 2008

...But real wages are still lower than they were before the recession caused by the financial crisis.

[10 September 2019 09:58 · ben.chapman]

Earnings for UK empoyees rose 4 per cent over the year and were up 2.1 per cent after taking account of inflation.

[10 September 2019 10:00 · ben.chapman]

Farming industry lays out plans to reach net-zero

From the Press Association:

Bigger hedgerows, precision delivery of fertilisers and improving the health of cattle and sheep are among plans farmers have for slashing greenhouse gases.

The National Farmers' Union has ambitions for the sector to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, a decade ahead of the UK economy as a whole, and has published a report on how it thinks it can be done.

It aims to meet the target by reducing emissions from farming practices, increasing the ability of land to store more carbon, and by focusing on renewable energy and products that remove carbon from the atmosphere.

British farms are responsible for around a 10th of UK greenhouse gas emissions, but only 10% of its output is carbon dioxide, while 40% is nitrous oxide from things such as fertilisers, and 50% is methane from cows and sheep.

Agricultural emissions have fallen by 16% overall since 1990, but there has been only "modest progress" since 2011, the NFU report says.

[10 September 2019 10:10 · ben.chapman]

Job vacancies fall

The official job numbers show that vacancies continued falling, with 812,000 open positions recorded between June and August – the lowest number since late 2017. 

[10 September 2019 10:11 · ben.chapman]

Labour market "surpassing expectations"

Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, welcomes the UK's better-than-expected jobs numbers but warns problems may be ahead.

“At a testing time, the labour market is surpassing expectations, though there are early signs the jobs boom could be cooling down.

“As so many people have entered work, there has been an uplift to household incomes which has helped to keep consumers ticking. For a long time, businesses have been eager to expand their workforce despite difficult economic conditions. With the supply of available workers shrinking and uncertainty lingering, firms are now beginning to dial down their recruitment ambitions.

“Vacancies are likely to continue falling. It’s becoming harder for business leaders to do any meaningful workforce planning, let alone find the talent that they need. High costs and an unclear view of future revenue have also led some to hold off on new hires. Meanwhile, though the ongoing strength in pay packets is a plus for workers, wages may be pushing at their limit. Cash-strapped SMEs in particular are already finding it difficult to compete for talent by upping their salary offers.

“While the jobs market continues to be a strong suit for the economy, emerging signs of a slowdown should focus the minds of policymakers. Businesses up and down the country are seeking improvements to the skills system and clarity on the future immigration system to inform their hiring plans going forward.”

[10 September 2019 10:15 · ben.chapman]

Shop workers suffering PTSD as a result of rising store crime

An increase in violence towards shop staff has led to a cases of anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder, an investigation has found.

Violence has hit a five-year high, according to a report by academics at City, University of London.

The report calls on the government to do more to protect workers in the sector

The report said: "The strain of constant abuse and fear of physical violence is causing some shop workers to change their shift pattern, their place of work or, in the worst cases, terminate their employment entirely."

One male store manager told the researchers: "I have been punched in the face by a shoplifter, threatened with a needle by a guy on drugs, been spat at, and suffered verbal abuse more times than I can remember."