How will Scotland vote in the general election?
Sean O’Grady examines whether the SNP will take out the Tories north of the border
There was a very good reason why the Scottish National Party pressed so hard for an early general election: it will win big. When it does, it will hope to have achieved three interrelated things. First, it would like to return, symbolically as much as anything, to the position that was obtained between 1997 and 2005 – no Tory MPs from north of the border turning up in Westminster. Second, it will present the image of a “Tory-free zone” as a mandate for a second independence referendum. Third, it will also present a near-clean sweep of the Westminster Scottish seats as a further mandate for returning Scotland to the European Union. “Keep a light on for Scotland” is SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford’s message to the EU. Thus, the SNP seems to have concluded that, while Brexit cannot be stopped in the UK, it could be halted, or reversed, through Scottish independence.
Polling suggests support for independence has increased to the 50 per cent mark from the 45 achieved in the 2014 referendum.
Having returned to its polling strength of 2015, now running at about 58 per cent (versus 36.9 per cent in the 2017 election), the SNP has a good chance of regaining dominance in Scottish politics and realising most of its ambitions. Since Labour’s previous long-term hegemony disappeared in the 2015 general election, the SNP has taken over. Of the 59 Scottish Westminster constituencies, the SNP won 56 of them in 2015, falling to 35 at the 2017 election after Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson’s spirited campaigning. It is fair to say Theresa May’s skin was saved by her Tory colleagues north of the border.
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