With the warning lights flashing, how likely is a global recession?
The IMF thinks growth will pick up in the new year and Oxford Economics says only two of its seven warning signs are flashing red. But that could be enough to cause real trouble, says James Moore
Just how likely is a global recession?
You’ll have seen the reports in recent months about warning lights flashing bright red. Economic sages have been trotted out to shake their heads and look grim. The fears they’ve been expressing would appear well founded.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been steadily revising down its forecasts for this year and now expects growth to come in at 3 per cent. That looks just dandy from a country like Britain, which is confined to the slow lane. But context is everything. The aforementioned 3 per cent represents a marked slowdown from last year’s 3.6 per cent. Compared with the 2018 peak, Planet Earth plc is off by a full percentage point.